Championship (Day Three)

I go into day three without many decisions to consider. After dropping Garrett Jones to add Nolasco (welcome to the team, Ricky) I have an opening in the OF, so I have to decide if Markakis or DeRosa gets the start. Markakis has done nothing recently, but DeRosa has been injured and I’m just not sold that he has come out of his funk. Markakis is getting the start today. Again.

This opens me to the question: why is DeRosa eating a roster spot? If I’m not going to start him and I’m going to be worried that the lingering effects from his injury are dragging down his play, why have him at all? That’s a very valid question, good reader. With my moves limited, I won’t make a decision to drop him until I see somebody I definately want.

The only other decision: should I start Miguel Olivo against Josh Beckett. Let’s face it, Olivo isn’t actually good and Beckett is. On the other hand, I added the guy to play, and I should let him do just that. Olivo will stay in the lineup and if he goes Ofer I will kill him.

Riggs dropped Brad Penny to pick up Homer Bailey. Bailey has been hot lately, but with the Cinncy lineup behind him and his spotty history, I’d want to see a little more before I made a committment. I guess even if he played his absolute, abject worst he would essentially be Brady Penny, so there really is no loss. As Brady pointed out, if this is an attempt to start streaming starters on a limited basis, that’s an interesting strategy indeed considering we are 1/7 of the way into the matchup.

I have no pitchers going, and Riggs starts Cole Hammels and Homer Bailey. Should be an interesting night.

Championship (Day Two, Part Two)

Tuesday’s games have mostly gone final and I’m satisfied with my results. Chris Coghlan came up huge in the double-header today, going 4/8. My Phillies combined to go 4/23, but Ibanez homered and Rollins and Victorino both swiped bags so I guess I’ll take it. I got sonofabenched by DeRosa (2/3 with Runs) and Garrett Jones who I took out in favor of Markakis at the last minute. Jones went 3/4 and Markakis gave me another big fat night off. I really wish we could get that info in advance. It does me absolutely no good to have a utility man like DeRosa if I can’t get more than five minutes warning that he should be in my lineup.

I can’t express my feelings on Markakis, but I can’t help wonder if he has just given up. I know if I had a whole career ahead of me and my team had sucked all year, it would be hard to get motivated around this time. Thoughts of family and the offseason routine start to creep into your head and you can sense the end is near. If you’re not into playing spoiler, the endgame gets old quick. Maybe I need to rethink what his role is going to be the next few weeks. I’ll give it some time for now.

So with a 5/7 night sitting on my bench, I have to look at pitching. Edwin Jackson went 7IP 0ER and got the win. He walked more than he K’d which I HATE to see because its a terrible indicator for future success, but you can’t argue with the results tonight. I have been asking all season, “how much further can I ride this guy?” I had almost written him off in September, but he carried me a bit further tonight.

Overall, I made some stupid mistakes on the benchings, but I can’t argue with trying to play Markakis. It just didn’t pan out, and wound up with a .228 average on the night. That’s miserable, but I have come to expect it lately. Oh, in other news – Aramis Ramirez stole a base. I guess the powers that be felt bad I got stolen on by Sandoval and gave some payback.

My opponent was just tremendous tonight. His team hit over .400 and he put up 11 runs and 11 RBI. Only 1 homer and 1 steal, but still, that’s a lot of production on one night. If that keeps up for more than a few days, I may very well be sunk. Luckily, his pitchers combine for two losses and a 7.36 ERA on the day. Told you Zach Duke sucked. He picked up Drew Stubbs and dropped Stephen Drew, which I don’t understand one bit. Stubbs is a pure speed player and he already has two of those in Mike Bourn and Rajai Davis. Adding a third may give him a big speed advantage, but it helps me in almost everything else as they arn’t RBI guys, the have bad OBP, and they are not known for hitting for average. Plus, do you really want to be in the position of counting on Oakland, Houston, and Cinncy t0 drive these guys in? I just don’t understand that move, but I’ll take it.

Brady was just shocked when he asked, “what’s your matchup look like so far?” and I had no idea. On day two of a fourteen day series, I don’t see the point to moment by moment updates. I may take a look once before bed, but its more out of a casual interest than anything else. Lets be honest – there is SO much baseball left to be played that no stat matters at this point. I certainly can’t prepare a coherent endgame or strategize pitching and spot starts at this point. I just gotta hope the hitters get knocks and the pitchers miss bats, and that’s 100% of the strategy for a while.

To satisfy your curiosity – I’m winning 10-7.

Championship (Day Two)

I have a massive number of games today since the Phillies and Marlins play a double-header. Ibanez, Rollins, Victorino, and Coghlan all play twice. I feel it’s pretty much essential that they all play, just for the counting stats, so my roster flexibility is limited. Garrett Jones is facing Johnny Cueto this evening, and I have become such a big Cueto hater that I feel Jones must be in my lineup. With limited flexibility, I decided to put Markakis on the bench today. It’s always difficult to bench a guy I consider a potential long-term keeper, but he has been stone cold and I have some really good matchups to play.

I currently have DeRosa on the bench today too. After his massive day yesterday I’m really tempted to play him, but the only spot I could play him is at first base over LaRoche. I think the chances of Mark DeRosa hitting strongly two days in a row are slim, so I might play the probabilities and leave him on the bench.

The only move I made today: I dropped Soto and picked up Miguel Olivo. Over the last week, Olivo is the #1 player in fantasy according to Yahoo. Soto is inconsistent, and his playing time in Chicago is spotty at best.

I have Edwin Jackson going tonight at Cleveland. The Indians are so bad that I have to like that matchup, but I’m certainly not confident in Jackson at this point. I guess after the wheels fell off the WandWagon last night, my 10.50 ERA can only go down. At least that’s what I keep telling myself.

Riggs is tossing Josh Johnson at home versus the Phillies which makes me double invested in that game. Hopefully my Phillies can do some damage. He also has Zack Duke against the Reds at home. Duke has an 8.85ERA in the last month, so I’m keeping my fingers crossed that he gets lit up like a cheap cigar.

One more addition to my team: tommorow will see the arrival of Ricky Nolasco. I claimed him off waivers by dropping Garrett Jones. Nolasco has been hit or miss, but the way my pitching looks right now I’m more than willing to take a big risk. Riggs claimed Clay Bucholtz off waivers the night before, which gave me the advantage in getting Nolasco.

Championship (Day One, Part Two)

I’m going to live-blog my matchup tonight as much as possible. You’ll get a first-hand account of my thoughts while watching my players do their things.

I couple of my guys had off-days so I brought in Garrett Jones and Mark DeRosa off the bench to help with the counting numbers. If you have them, you might as well play them. I also have Wandy Rodriguez on the mound tonight in St. Louis, so hopefully the WandWagon will keep rolling.

7:30pm – The hitting has gotten off to a good start. Garrett Jones homered in the first inning, Aramis got a knock and the Cubs drove him in, and DeRosa nailed a two-run double. I would be happier with the double if it hadn’t come off Wandy Rodriguez.

Wandy gave up three runs in the first inning, but if he can pull his stuff together we can salvage that start. Just keep the wheels on the wagon.

Riggs isn’t too far in yet, but so far he has a couple guys going 0-fer. Decent start so far.

8:00pm – The hit parade continues. Aramis just homered and DeRosa put one in the bleachers at Busch. Again, the shot by DeRosa came off Wandy, who has given up six runs through three innings. I’d say its safe to assume the wheels fell off the WandWagon tonight. I have two weeks to make that up.

8:30pm – DeRosa just hit another homer. That makes two on the night. I don’t even care about Wandy at this point. I can’t believe my two bench players are 4/6 with 3HR and a 2B on the night I decided to play them. It’s going to make things difficult when I have to drop one of them in the next few days.

12:00am – The stats are in for day one of the playoffs. My team hit over .400 on the day with a plethora of HRs. Wandy shit the bed and gave up 7ER after only 5IP. He did have 5 Ks and only allowed 9 baserunners, so I’m not terribly concerned. Its not like he gave up a ton of opportunities. Riggs hit a solid .250 with nothing remarkable except a SB from Pablo Sandoval. Really? Sandoval? Somebody forgot to tell him pandas can’t steal bases. The catcher must have had a siezure.

That’s all for today. I have some moves coming down the pike tommorow morning, and I’ll be detailing them at length. Good first day.

Championship (Day One)

In order to give you a good idea of what I’m working with this week, I’ll start by listing my roster, as well as Riggs’s. Then I’ll explain the moves I made last night to prepare for today. The rosters will look like the following:

Posititon – MyPlayer; RiggsPlayer – (Analysis)

C – G.Soto; P.Sandoval – (matchup favors Riggs. I’m riding Soto’s modest hot streak.)

1B – A.LaRochel; J.Votto – (favors Riggs. Injury to Morneau killed me, so I’m forced to play whoever is hot.)

2B – C.Coghlan; C.Utley – (favors Riggs. Coghlan puts up average and not much else. *yawn* Utley should rape me.)

3B – A.Ramirez; G.Beckham – (favors me (finally). Ramirez’s shoulder is a big concern, especially if the Cubs get eliminated.)

SS – J.Rollins; S.Drew – (favors me. I like the SB and Runs I get from Rollins, and I’m not at a power disadvantage.)

OF – S.Victorino; M.Kemp – (even. I like Kemp a lot, but Victorino contributes much more speed and has hit for good power at times.)

OF – R.Ibanez; R.Braun – (favors Riggs. I got Ibanez after Riggs dropped him in late season. I’ll take that any day.)

OF – A.Ethier; R.Davis – (favors me. I like Ethier quite a bit. Davis is a SB only type player. He helps Riggs in speed and thats about it.)

UT – T.Hunter; M.Bourn – (favors me. Hunter has hit well, and Bourn is essentially the same player as Davis.)

UT – N.Markakis; B.Zobrist – (favors me. Zobrist has been good and Markakis has been COLD. Crapshoot.)

I have Garrett Jones and Mark DeRosa on the bench to provide some depth. DeRosa is eligable at 4 positions – one is 3B – which comes in handy when players start getting benched late in the season. Riggs doesn’t have anybody on the bench.

SP1 – J.Lackey; A.Wainwright

SP2 – J.Shields; C.Hamels

SP3 – G.Floyd; J.Vazquez

SP4 – W.Rodriguez; M.Garza

SP5 – S.Baker; J.Johnson

I’m holding onto four closers, and Riggs has four closers.

Games start tonight, and I’ll probably give a wrap up after they go final. Check back.

Blogging the Championship

The fantasy baseball regular season has concluded. I finished the year in 5th place, which qualified me for a playoff berth in our Yahoo league. The final rankings were as follows:

1. Brady

2. Riggs (17 GB)

3. Zach (23.5 GB)

4. Marshall (33 GB)

5. Me (36.5 GB)

6. Adam (40 GB)

So I made the playoffs fairly comfortably, followed by Adam who squeaked in by a game. In the first round, I knocked off Marshall to advance while Adam took out Zach. Week 2 saw Riggs end Adam’s season while I scored an improbable victory over Brady. Brady had a solid grip on first place all season, and for him to lose his first matchup of the playoffs… it had to be tough. Tim Lincecum got rocked in a Sunday afternoon start to seal my victory. I couldn’t have gotten luckier. After much celebration and a little champagne, its back to business as I begin the championship against Riggs.

For those who don’t use Yahoo, the championship “week” is actually two weeks long. This really gives the better team an advantage, because it’s more difficult to pull a big upset when you have to hold onto a lead for twice as long. It will take a big fortnight (“two-week period” for you comm. majors) to pull this off, but my team is capable. I will be blogging the ‘ship at least once a day for the duration of the matchup.

Stay tuned.

Kazmir Conclusion

Today I executed a trade with Ryan Barnes that saw Scott Kazmir leave my team. The final deal is fairly complicated, but in total I got the value I wanted. I gave Kazmir for a 2nd Round Pick (82nd overall by ADP). In addition, Barnes and I swap picks in the 5th, 9th, 13th, 16th, and 17th rounds. Because our draft is a “snake” draft, I move up five picks in all the odd numbered rounds, and move down five picks in the even numbered. I think the additional 15-picks on the early-side of those rounds injects enough value into this deal to make the late 2nd the equivalent of an early 2nd, which is about what I felt was fair.

I am somewhat proud to be the jackass who screws up everybody’s draft sheets by trading 11 picks in total. Barnes and I called our commissioner after we had the deal finalized and he said, “I’m not sure I believe you. Was it really necesarry to trade picks in four irrelevant rounds?”

In response, I would like to say it was absolutely necessary. Any sliver of value from those bumps in late rounds is value I didn’t have before. If I add it all together, I feel like the sum makes that 2nd round pick just a little more appealing, which is what I wanted from the outset. I also firmly believe that any moron can make good picks in the first three rounds, and any moron can draft upside in the last three rounds, but a team is truely made by the picks that are made in between. In that sense, those small bumps in a couple middle rounds are more valued than ever.

Kazmir Update 01/08

I initiated talks with David Long today regarding Scott Kazmir. David has a pick late in the 2nd round. His pick is pretty well below Kazmir’s ADP, but as detailed earlier I am somewhat anxious to sell. I offered him Kazmir for his 2nd round pick and he said he would think about it and get back to me tommorow. I sent him a copy of a Mock Draft Central ADP Report so he could see what pitchers were going where and what kind of a deal he was getting. David’s only other pitcher is Justin Verlander, so I would imagine he will be somewhat interested just from a talent perspective.

David indicated to me that Sanders had been talking to him earlier, shopping Ludwick for a 2nd round pick. David wasn’t interested in the deal, just as I had predicted. I let him know I didn’t think that was in his best interests.

The Forecaster

The last few days has seen the arrival of my 2009 baseball bible, also known as Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster. The projections are interesting and insightful, as always. I am going to be looking through the book in the next few weeks and I’ll pass along any relevant musings about players being discussed in the blog.

I don’t know Ron in any way, but I found him through the book Fantasyland. He has been described as a “bearded prophet from the mountains of West Virginia.” I don’t have any idea where he lives, but his insight seems to border on prophetic and he does have a pretty cool beard. At $30, his book is the best steal in baseball – it would take hours upon hours to accumulate the data he provides. I’ll give you a link to BaseballHQ just for fun. That is Shandler’s website.

Kazmir Update 01/07

This afternoon I was enjoying a fine cigar with my friend and leaguemate Eric Riggs and I got a text from David Sanders. David asked if I would consider doing a late 2nd round pick for Kazmir. I called him back after enjoying my Philly, and David informed me the deal wouldn’t work. It seems he was trying to move his keeper Ryan Ludwick for a 2nd round pick, which he would then flip to me for Kazmir. While this would certainly be a tremendous steal for David, he – unsuprisingly – couldn’t find any takers for Ludwick at that price.

As a sidenote Ludwick has a mockdraftcentral.com ADP of ~80. Taken below him are pitchers like Burnett, Zambrano, King Felix, and outfielders like Hunter, Dye, Hawpe, and Matsui (several rounds later). While we can argue about those names, there is no denying that its not worth the premium to take the massive downside risk associated with Ludwick. Much more intelligent would be to keep your 2nd round pick and make a much safer pick with Hunter or Dye in the 3rd.

David disagrees with my analysis, but he couldn’t provide any reasoning why he feels Ludwick is worth the asking price. I guess we’ll have to wait and see, but I’m not holding my breath.

 

UPDATE: 21:30pm

I just got off the phone with Ryan Barnes, discussing the events that happened in this deal. He raised an interesting point that I want to pass along. Basically, if someone were to give David a 2nd round pick for Ludwick, they would be paying about market price for a repeat of 2008. Not very many people seriously think Ludwick will repeat 2008. Its not impossible, but generally not considered likely. By paying for 2008, you remove all of your upside. If one were to give a 4th or 5th round pick (around 110-120 ADP) for him, it would be a fine deal. The upside exists still exists.

The 2nd round pick is like making a bet that only pays 1:1 if you win. The only possible outcomes are breakeven or lose.